November 24, 2009
Well, there’s one good thing the recession has brought us: Worldwide emissions of greenhouse gases in 2009 will be nine per cent lower than they would have been in 2012 without the global economic downturn, British researchers say. “The reduction will delay by 21 months a global 2 deg C rise above pre-industrial levels, if ‘business as usual’ emissions resume after the crisis, said the Economic and Social Research Council’s centre for climate change economics and policy.”
Also on the climate front, according to The Seminal: “While the GOP/Media clowns were babbling about bowing, US President Barack Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao were hammering out a climate-change deal in advance of the great Copenhagen climate summit. Because of this deal, President Obama is now able to go to Copenhagen with the following good news: The news that President Obama will seek a emissions target at global talks in Copenhagen has animated a once-moribund meeting and given hope to environmentalists that something tangible can come from them.”
November 24, 2009
What Amoeba Music calls “the Euro musical tour de force duo,” Italian classical pianist Alessandra Celletti and Hans-Joachim Roedelius (of the electronic/experimental group Cluster) will offer three rare performances next week in Los Angeles, San Francisco, and New York. The L.A. concert will be in the intimately rewarding Zipper Hall, at the Colburn School in downtown, next to MOCA. Celletti creates beautifully pure – even simple – soundscapes. The minimalism that stretches from Eric Satie to Philip Glass is part of her territory. But always tinged with emotional color. German electronica maven Roedelius (a one-time Brian Eno collaborator) adds synthesized textures to Celletti’s organic moods on their new Transparency recording Sustanza de Cose Sperata (“Essence of Things Hoped For”). The recording includes a new version of Eno’s “By This River.”
What to expect at the Zipper Hall concert, December 5? “A trip into the colors, from azure to rose, through orange, magenta, turquoise, black and white,” says Celletti. “We think that the sounds are also colors and we love to share all shades.” Tickets available through Amoeba.
November 18, 2009
There was a fair amount of hand-wringing, bottom-searching and even some bank-bashing at the Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2010 conference, by ULI Los Angeles, November 18 at the Japanese American National Museum in downtown Los Angeles. Presented by the L.A. District Council of Urban Land Institute, Emerging Trends presented ULI’s national report (joint ventured with PriceWaterhouseCoopers LLP) along with local analysis. Robert J. Gardner, managing director of RCLCo, offered Los Angeles regional trends, while dual panels of capital providers and capital users (moderated by Xavier Gutierrez of Phoenix Realty Group and Kathy Brisco of IDS Real Estate Group) anguished over the direction of development in 2010 and beyond. (Los Angeles Times’ Roger Vincent recently reported on the Emerging Trends report and quoted Gutierrez.)
Some of the more salient panel comments included the following:
Of the $800 million in commercial loans coming due, 2/3 are underwater.
Asset types to get the most attention next year: office, retail, industrial. Not hospitality. Fannie & Freddie will handle multifamily.
Southern California housing market finding bottom will determine course of entire economy in 2010.
Zombie assets will still be choking loans in 2010.
With bonds giving 25% return, how do you justify investing in development for 9% return?
Today, “relationship banking” means the bank will determine when the relationship ends.
Banks are taking federal funds to shore up their balance sheets, not lend it out like they should.
This year’s buzzwords in capital markets: zombie buildings, lend and extend, pretend and extend.
Despite all the chaos, real estate is institutional part of public pension funds, who still drive lending.
The market will return to a fraction of its former self. Which will lead to more consolidation.
A jobless recovery is a slow recovery, because jobs are what fill up buildings.
One of the rare growth sectors (besides medical and public sector) is green building. There will be a huge movement toward LEED certification.
And the Quote of the Day: If you don’t like change you’ll like irrelevance even less.
November 13, 2009
The Environmental Protection Agency is accused of silencing two longtime EPA enforcement attorneys who have criticized a key component of climate-change legislation. The legislation – “Cap and Trade,” which allows polluting industries to trade pollution credits with non-polluters – is scheduled to come before Congress soon. The defecting EPA attorneys have been hailed by conservative media as heroes, as in this Washington Examiner editorial, or on Fox News. But conservative support for the dissenting attorneys comes from a desire to embarrass the Obama administration, and to confuse the public on the threat of global warming. Not from a concern about the environment. Actually the two attorneys believe “Cap and Trade” is “fatally flawed” because it doesn’t go far enough to fight the looming disaster of global warming. The couple instead advocate a solution involving carbon fees with rebates. That is something you’ll never see supported on Fox News. See their interview on Democracy Now.
